{"id":4833,"date":"2012-01-01T13:31:11","date_gmt":"2012-01-01T13:31:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/?p=4833"},"modified":"2013-02-07T12:40:24","modified_gmt":"2013-02-07T12:40:24","slug":"the-syrians-have-lost-their-fear-is-it-time-for-a-no-fly-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/?p=4833","title":{"rendered":"The Syrians have lost their fear. Is it time for a no-fly zone?"},"content":{"rendered":"

When President Assad finally falls in Syria will he be shot like Gaddafi in Libya, or put on trial like Mubarak in Egypt, or flee to Saudi like Ben Ali in Tunisia? <\/strong><\/p>\n

On Friday, for the first time, the protests in Syria reached the capital Damascus. The demonstrators on the streets of that nation swelled from tens of thousands to a hundred thousand and more. Protestors have seized the opportunity to show newly-arrived observers from the Arab League the intensity of the anger against the regime of\u00a0 President Assad, which has now killed around 5,000 of its citizens in its unyielding crackdown on dissent.<\/p>\n

Mr Assad\u2019s pledge \u2013 to implement a peace initiative involving an end to violence, troops pulled off the streets and political prisoners freed \u2013 looks utterly worthless. Indeed the violence has got worse since the Arab peace monitors began their mission on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

So is it time for the Nato planes which are so newly returned from Libya to begin enforcing a no-fly zone over Syria? Not yet. The protestors in the capital\u2019s suburbs do not offer the only pressure. Syria has been unprecedentedly suspended from the Arab League. The King of Jordan has bluntly told Assad to step down. Turkey, hitherto an important ally and trading partner, has threatened to cut off the nation\u2019s electricity. The EU has moved to extend sanctions against Assad\u2019s inner circle. In Washington there is talk of increasing support for the Syrian opposition. Even China may not resist sanctions at the UN Security Council in January when the Arab League monitors file their report. Assad\u2019s departure is now a question of \u201cwhen not if\u201d .<\/p>\n

Yet it could be some little time still before that happens. \u00a0Russia is adamant in its backing of Assad. Last year 10 per cent of Moscow\u2019s global arm sales were to Damascus. Russia\u2019s total investment in the Syrian economy tops $19bn. But that will hold off the inevitable only for so long.<\/p>\n

A barrier of fear has been broken in a critical mass of ordinary Syrians, as their\u00a0 increased boldness on the streets now shows. Defections from the Syrian army are now said to exceed 10,000. The Palestinian faction Hamas has withdrawn many of its lower-level officials from its headquarters in Damascus.<\/p>\n

Protestors have been chanting for the execution of Assad but it might not come to that. Syria is ruled by a tiny group of Alawite Shia Muslims who make up 80 per cent of the officers in the Syrian army.\u00a0 The ruling elite, nervous about the prospect of a takeover by the Sunni majority, might decide to sacrifice him. He could be replaced by his brother Maher, the ruthless commander of the ultra-loyal Fourth Division, the only army unit allowed in the capital. There may be key splits in this elite already; that would explain why its politicians decided to allow in the Arab League observers while its military leaders continue to attack protesters before the monitors\u2019 eyes.<\/p>\n

If Assad loses the support of the urban and business elites in Damascus and Aleppo that could clinch his fall. That could happen as \u00a0the economy worsens.<\/p>\n

It is bad already. This time last year moderate economic growth was predicted by the IMF, tourism was high and rising, and exploration for new oil and gas fields was under way.\u00a0Now drought has pushed a million farmers off the land and economic sanctions have hit the banks and the oil sector hard. Fuel shortages and power cuts are routine. One in three men are unemployed. The Syrian pound is worth a third less. Rapid inflation is eroding spending power. The strategic hard currency reserve is being spent.\u00a0 What will happen when it runs out?<\/p>\n

Perhaps neighbouring Turkey will intervene or arm the Syrian rebels with weapons. Perhaps Syria will descend into a Lebanese-style sectarian civil war. Then might be the time to consider a UN no-fly zone. But we are some way off that yet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When President Assad finally falls in Syria will he be shot like Gaddafi in Libya, or put on trial like Mubarak in Egypt, or flee to Saudi like Ben Ali in Tunisia? On Friday, for the first time, the protests in Syria reached the capital Damascus. The demonstrators on the streets of that nation swelled […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[712,382,383],"class_list":["post-4833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-middle-east","tag-middle-east","tag-revolution","tag-syria"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4833"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4833\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7298,"href":"https:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4833\/revisions\/7298"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paulvallely.com\/archive\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}