The case for an independent Falklands
Had Kirchner been serious she would have acted entirely differently ahead of the referendum in March in which the islanders will be asked if they want the territory to remain British. She could have opened up communications and transport. She might have improved trade and offered free university education to the Falklanders. She might even, as the free-marketeers of Washington’s Cato Institute suggested, given half a million dollars to every man, woman and child on the Falklands if a big majority voted for Argentine sovereignty in the coming poll. Or she could have invested in business in the islands – with joint ventures to explore the £200 billion barrels worth of oil which optimists believe is buried beneath the surrounding South Atlantic. All this might have lessened Falklanders suspicion of their nearest neighbour.
Of course, had Mrs Kirchner possessed any political sophistication she would not be making such a mess of her own country. For all her quasi-mystical presentation of herself as a second Evita her mix of nationalism, paranoia, and regional ambition is toxic. She is refusing to pay interest on her multi-billion international debts. She has annoyed neighbouring countries with her trade barriers. She is deterring foreign investors by nationalising part of a major Spanish energy company. She faces expulsion from the IMF and G20. Inflation, corruption, crime and a black market in currency are rife. She intimidates opposition media and cracks down on political opponents from left-wing activists to ecologists and indigenous groups opposed to her mining policies.
No Falklander in their right mind would want to be associated with such an undeveloping country. So Mrs Kirchner is left with only bellicose rhetoric and the desire that the noise of her rattling sabre drowns the grumbling of her people. She hopes that the Malvinas can save her, much as the Falklands saved Margaret Thatcher from domestic unpopularity three decades ago. Papers just released under the 30-year-rule reveal Mrs Thatcher “never, never expected the Argentines to invade the Falklands head-on. It was such a stupid thing to do”. But stupid things are so much a part of the Kirchner political lexicon that it is entirely possible a plane full of troops or flag-waving stuntmen might yet be dispatched to the Falklands by Buenos Aires.
Even so, the British prime minister would do well to look ahead three decades, rather than back. By then the balance of economic power between the UK and Latin America may have shifted. A Spanish-speaking president may be sitting in the White House. An independent Falklands, as a member of Nato, might be better placed to survive from Argentine clutches. Whitehall should be quietly thinking ahead now, from a position of comparative strength. It can leave a populist president and press to do the huffing and puffing in public.
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